Four cruise ships navigated the minefield in the Strait of Hormuz. UK warships sent through by April 30, 2026 at 7% YES.

Trump missed the deadline for announcing the blockade lift, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed. Blockade lifted by April 19 ...

Lammy backs Starmer amid Mandelson controversy, easing Labour pressure. Starmer out by June 30, 2026 at 36.5% YES.

Israel is preparing for potential military action against Iran, with military action odds at 12.2% YES and ceasefire odds ...

Iran claims control over the Strait of Hormuz, raising conflict fears. Ceasefire end by April 21 now at 22% YES.

Hezbollah's IED attack killed an Israeli soldier, pushing ceasefire odds to 0%. Ceasefire by March 31, 2026 at 0% YES.

Iran's Parliament Speaker expresses readiness for martyrdom amid rising tensions. Leadership change by December 31 at 32.5% ...

Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has pushed the odds of his endorsement to 100.0% YES, while ...

Iran fired on tankers and set conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Fewer than 10 ships transiting from April 13-19 ...

The phased reopening follows a US-Israeli military campaign that closed Iranian airspace for 49 days and suggests some ...

Israeli Broadcasting Authority suggests Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz again, pushing the Trump US-Iran ceasefire end by ...

White House officials announced plans for additional talks in Pakistan on US-Iran peace negotiations. The permanent peace ...